This morning's "Morning Money" piece from Politico, made predictions about future work by the Trump Administration and Republicans in Congress to repeal parts of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law. As a part of that discussion, the article heavily cited the introduction to this week's Financial Services Report written by Thorn Run's Jason Rosenstock. According to Jason, "[T]he transition team has made clear its goal to dismantle Dodd Frank. While Democrats appear to be digging in against a broadside attack, there is a sense that some elements of Obama’s legacy in the financial services space will be either undone or significantly modified."
In a year where predictions have routinely been busted, Jason also made sure to temper expectations in regards to Dodd-Frank: "“If the election has taught us anything it is to be wary of groupthink conventional wisdom, but our take for next year’s agenda is that while consensus to overturn Dodd-Frank ‘whole cloth’ will not materialize, there will be a concerted effort to repeal or replace significant elements of the law.”
A fuller excerpt of this morning's article is below.
Trump Treasury watch
TRUMP TREASURY WATCH — Seems like we will get a Treasury Secretary pick from Donald Trump soon with former Goldman Sachs executive Steven Mnuchin still in the lead but with the president-elect remaining interested in the idea of JPMorganChase CEO Jamie Dimon for the job. The fear among Trump aides is that Dimon could prove too much of a maverick with his own agenda. But Trump likes splashy names. And some people think Dimon would say yes if asked. Still kind of hard to see Trump asking a guy he once called "the worst banker in the United States" but this a year when then unlikely happens.
House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling is still in the mix, though one person close to Trump put his odds pretty low. And POLITICO’s Anna Palmer reported Sunday that Trump met Sunday with Jonathan Gray, head of global real estate at Blackstone and the pair discussed the Treasury job. Gray, 45, donated the maximum to Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign and has given to other Democrats as well. Here’s Anna’s piece.
MORE ON GREY — Per a former Obama administration official: “I am not sure Jon Gray would take the job, but I have worked with him on policy and he is excellent. Gray is incredibly talented and would be a strong pick as Treasury Secretary. He is a big thinker on policy and a very decent person. We would be lucky to get him.”
MORE WALLS STREET NAMES — Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs and Arit John: “Trump interviewed top investment executives for the role of Treasury Secretary as the president-elect continues stitching together the administration that will take over the White House in January. Meetings at the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey … featured at least three potential candidates with deep Wall Street experience, including the billionaire investor Wilbur Ross and Jonathan Gray …
“David McCormick, president of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, also met with Trump. McCormick, a West Point graduate who served in the first Gulf War, later worked at Treasury and in the White House during the George W. Bush administration. All three are in the running for Treasury secretary, said a person familiar with the hiring process. … Mnuchin … is thought to be the front-runner” Read more.
DODD-FRANK GOING DOWN — One reason Hensarling gets talked down by some close to Trump is that they want to keep the Texan at the helm of House Financial Services to preside over the ripping apart of Dodd-Frank.
Thorn Run Partners’ Jason Rosenstock in the opening of his note going out this a.m.: “[T]he transition team has made clear its goal to dismantle Dodd Frank. While Democrats appear to be digging in against a broadside attack, there is a sense that some elements of Obama’s legacy in the financial services space will be either undone or significantly modified.
“If the election has taught us anything it is to be wary of groupthink conventional wisdom, but our take for next year’s agenda is that while consensus to overturn Dodd-Frank ‘whole cloth’ will not materialize, there will be a concerted effort to repeal or replace significant elements of the law.”
GOP CONGRESS PREPS TRUMP BLITZ — POLITICO’s Rachael Bade and John Bresnahan: “House Republican leaders, looking to jump-start … Trump’s presidency, have already begun to map out an ambitious agenda for early next year. On the early to do-list, according to leadership insiders: Repealing a host of late-issued Obama administration regulations, muscling through tax reform, and dismantling Obamacare.
“House members and staffers can say goodbye to their three-day weekends and lengthy recesses — at least for awhile. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy … is likely to keep lawmakers in D.C. on Mondays and Fridays … One of the major [rules] they’re eyeing is Obama’s overtime rule that requires companies to pay time-and-a-half to employees who make under roughly $47,000.” Read more.