Today on the Hill: Congress Poised to Approve Tax Reform in Votes Today

The conference report for the GOP-backed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is expected to reach the floor of both chambers today, as Republicans in Congress are poised to deliver on their promise to overhaul the nation’s tax regime for both individuals and businesses. In the Senate — where the bill will likely be passed on a razor-thin margin — theoretical holdouts Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Bob Corker (R-TN), and Marco Rubio (R-FL) have already committed to voting in favor of the bill, which should make the vote relatively free of the drama that defined the effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) earlier this year. On timing, the House vote will almost assuredly be completed later this morning, which then triggers a 10-hour procedural clock before the upper chamber can hold their vote on final passage. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has indicated that he intends to hold that final vote tonight, which would result in a final vote on the bill at some point late this evening.  President Trump is expected to take a victory lap with Republicans and sign the bill later this week.

From a broad perspective, today marks a long awaited day for Republicans. Many of the party’s leading figures, such as House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and House Ways and Means Chair Kevin Brady (R-TX), have pushed for an overhaul of the nation’s tax system for decades. The tax bill will also give President Trump a key legislative win and an important political victory given that many observers doubted the ability to get a major tax overhaul completed before the end of 2017. However, as Democrats experienced with the Affordable Care Act seven years ago, the enactment of major legislation does not always translate into electoral rewards. The tax reform bill remains deeply unpopular among swathes of the American public and the minority party will likely turn the bill’s more contentious provisions into messaging points for the 2018 midterm elections. As always in Washington, the winning party will need to keep one eye attuned to the next fight on the horizon.

In the immediate future, Republicans will need to keep their celebrations short-lived and move to negotiate a package to keep the government open beyond Friday. A series of pieces are being considered to be added to the continuing resolution (CR) that will keep the government funded, making the bill a true ‘Christmas tree’ that will likely feature ornaments to provide disaster funding, waive PAYGO rules that would require government cuts, and keep children’s health insurance and flood insurance programs afloat. Working against a deadline and the holiday season, lawmakers are likely to avoid a politically costly government shutdown at the end of the week. But as the House trudges forward with a more partisan approach to funding the government, we expect some drama before a final package gets ironed out.