2026 Congressional Outlook: A Narrowing Window Before the Midterms

Congress is heading into the final stretch of the 119th Congress with a crowded agenda, limited floor time, and several major policy deadlines still ahead.

With Congress facing a compressed calendar ahead of the November elections, the window to advance major legislative priorities is narrowing quickly. This raises the stakes for government funding, defense legislation, expiring authorizations, and other priorities competing for attention.

Download our latest report here. 

September 30 Is the First Major Pressure Point

Congress must fund the government by September 30, when several other authorities also expire, including programs tied to the Farm Bill, surface transportation, the National Flood Insurance Program, SNAP, TANF, and health care.

The appropriations process remains uneven. The House Appropriations Committee has advanced all 12 FY 2027 spending bills, while Senate action has lagged, increasing the likelihood of significant year-end legislative pressure.

Political Stalemates Could Push More Into the Lame Duck

The administration’s push for the SAVE America Act, combined with ongoing discussions around a third reconciliation package, has further complicated the congressional agenda.

If those disputes remain unresolved before the election, lawmakers could return to Washington facing a substantial lame-duck workload.

That matters because traditional must-pass measures—including the NDAA and government funding legislation—could become vehicles for other bipartisan priorities that have struggled to move independently. Potential areas to watch include energy permitting, digital asset market structure, kids’ online safety, the Farm Bill, surface transportation, and water resources legislation.

Watch the Must-Pass Vehicles

Even in a polarized Congress, lawmakers continue to identify areas where bipartisan agreements remain possible.

The report highlights several work streams that could move before the end of the year, including:

• FY 2027 government funding
• The National Defense Authorization Act
• The Farm Bill
• Surface transportation reauthorization
• Water resources legislation
• Energy permitting reform
• Digital asset market structure
• Kids’ online safety
• Shipbuilding legislation

Measures that cannot advance independently may increasingly be attached to larger year-end vehicles such as the NDAA or appropriations packages.

Conversely, areas including artificial intelligence, comprehensive data privacy, and college sports currently appear less likely to reach consensus and could slip into the next Congress.

Turnover Is Already Shaping the Next Congress

The changing composition of Congress is another factor organizations should begin planning around now.

Retirements, primary defeats, and redistricting are also accelerating turnover across both parties, including on influential committees such as Appropriations, Energy and Commerce, Financial Services, Ways and Means, Banking, Finance, and HELP.

For organizations with federal priorities, that means planning should extend beyond Election Day. Committee changes, new members, and shifting policy coalitions will create both risks and opportunities heading into the 120th Congress.

The Bigger Picture: Prepare for a Crowded Lame Duck—and the Next Congress

The remainder of 2026 is likely to be defined by two competing realities.

First, lawmakers have relatively little time before the election to resolve a long list of outstanding priorities. Second, must-pass year-end legislation will create opportunities for bipartisan measures that have struggled to move on their own.

That makes the next several months especially important for organizations with federal policy priorities.

The strongest advocacy strategies will account for both timelines: what can realistically move in the 119th Congress, and which relationships and issues need to be positioned now for the 120th.

For government affairs teams, waiting until after Election Day to make that distinction may be waiting too long.