2026 Midterm Elections: What Businesses Should Watch

The 2026 midterm elections could reshape more than the balance of power in Washington. A wave of congressional departures, changing district maps, and competitive races is setting the stage for significant turnover—and potentially new policy priorities—in the next Congress.

Thorn Run Partners’ latest 2026 Midterm Election Report examines the political landscape and what organizations should be watching as November approaches.

Control of Congress Remains in Play

The president’s party has historically lost House seats during midterm elections, creating an opening for Democrats as they seek to regain control of the chamber. Republicans, however, see a more favorable path in the Senate, where many of the seats they are defending are in traditionally Republican states.

Several closely contested Senate races—including Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina—could ultimately determine control of the chamber.

Congressional Turnover Will Matter

Regardless of which party wins, the next Congress will look markedly different. Dozens of House and Senate members are retiring, seeking other offices, or leaving following competitive primaries.

The House alone is expected to welcome at least 60 new members. Combined with the freshman class elected in 2024, approximately one-third of the chamber could be serving in its first or second term when the 120th Congress begins.

That turnover will reshape committees, leadership structures, and relationships across Capitol Hill—making early engagement especially important.

Redistricting Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty

Mid-decade redistricting in several states is also changing the congressional battlefield. New maps have altered district boundaries, created member-versus-member primaries, and pushed some incumbents toward retirement.

Legal challenges surrounding voting rights and congressional maps may continue affecting elections beyond 2026 and into the 2028 presidential cycle.

What Organizations Should Do Now

The months ahead provide an important opportunity to prepare for multiple outcomes. Organizations should assess potential committee turnover, identify emerging policymakers, strengthen relationships on both sides of the aisle, and consider how issues such as affordability, trade, healthcare, artificial intelligence, digital assets, and immigration may shape the next Congress.

Waiting until after Election Day to begin that work may mean arriving late to a conversation already underway.

Download Thorn Run Partners’ full 2026 Midterm Election Report for additional analysis of the House and Senate maps, congressional retirements, redistricting, and the races most likely to shape Washington.

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Media inquiries: Daniel Gleason | dgleason@thornrun.com