Congress Breaks After GOP Adopts Budget Resolution

Congress wrapped up legislative business last week after Republicans successfully unlocked the reconciliation process to pass “one big, beautiful bill” containing President Donald Trump’s legislative priorities on tax, border, energy, and more. Pursuant to the budget resolution, committees of instruction have until Friday, May 9 to produce their respective reconciliation bills, and Republicans are trying to move as quickly as possible through the upcoming May work period with the goal of passing the reconciliation bill before Memorial Day.

• When lawmakers return to Washington at the end of the month, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said that committees will begin holding markups on their respective instructions that will be combined into a single reconciliation bill. According to news reports from over the weekend, the first markups in the House Judiciary, Homeland Security, and Armed Services Committees are being eyed for the week of April 28. Meanwhile, timing for markups in the Energy and Commerce (E&C) and Ways and Means Committees are not clear as of now given some of the ongoing discussions on tax policy and spending cuts. However, action on reconciliation could speed up significantly depending on when the Treasury Department’s “X date” — the date in which the federal government is projected to hit its borrowing limit — falls. While the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently suggested that the X date could be in August or September, late May or June remains possible if tax revenue falls below expectations, according to CBO’s forecast.
• What to watch. Congress has until December 31, 2025 to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), and Republicans are aiming to do so well ahead of the sunset deadline. We’ll be looking to see where the chips fall on key debates around TCJA permanence, the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean energy tax credits, as well as numerous campaign promises from the President like no tax on Social Security benefits and tipped wages. Republicans also need to hash out key disagreements over the size and scope of cuts to public benefit programs like Medicaid and SNAP to ensure that the reconciliation package can pass with the requisite number of GOP votes in both chambers.