Capitol Hill Update: House GOP Braces for Tight Vote on Budget Resolution

The House will gavel in today for a pivotal vote on the House GOP budget resolution as leadership looks to move closer toward crafting and enacting a sweeping reconciliation package on tax, energy, border security, and more. House Republican leadership has been working overtime to shore up support for the budget resolution among lawmakers that have expressed concern about steep cuts to public benefits, emphasizing that the resolution is a “procedural step” and that cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and Pell are not explicitly outlined within the resolution. While these whipping efforts have assuaged concerns among some of these lawmakers, including Reps. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) and Don Bacon (R-NE), reports from Capitol Hill indicate that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is still facing some defections from the likes of Reps. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) and Warren Davidson (R-OH). Of note, Rep. Davidson stated his intention to vote no on the resolution until leadership “communicate[s] a binding plan for discretionary spending ahead of March 14.”

• Situational awareness. Assuming that the House can get its resolution adopted this week, negotiations between Speaker Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) are expected to intensify with the goal of getting one uniform budget resolution through both chambers. If the House’s resolution stalls out, Senate Republicans will likely use this as an opportunity to try and boost their own budget resolution, which passed the upper chamber with relative ease last week. To that end, it will be worth monitoring to see if President Trump changes his mind and throws his weight behind the Senate’s two-bill approach — which splits off tax reform with border and energy-specific priorities — to try and achieve a quick legislative win in the early part of this year.

— THE LATEST ON GOVERNMENT FUNDING. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) cautioned yesterday that appropriators are not where they need to be with respect to an agreement on fiscal year (FY) 2025 government funding, and will need a stopgap to allow for additional time absent significant and quick progress. Congress is pushing up against the quickly-approaching March 14 government funding deadline, but the “four corners” appropriators have remained gridlocked over topline spending numbers —a critical precursor to the development of all 12 appropriations bills. As of now, it is not clear how long another continuing resolution (CR) would run through, but some have floated the possibility of a stopgap through the rest of this fiscal year. However, such a move would likely trigger the one percent across-the-board spending cut mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) if all 12 appropriations bills are not passed by April 30, 2025. A shorter CR could give lawmakers time to pass a series of three or four-bill “minibus” packages to ensure that key sections of the federal government stay open, but it is not yet clear if there is bipartisan support to move forward at this time.

• On the floor. In addition to the House budget resolution, the House will hold a final vote on legislation that would establish a research and development (R&D) agreement between the Small Business Administration (SBA) and Department of Energy (DOE) to ensure small businesses are included within activities covered within the agreement. Meanwhile, the Senate will resume consideration of pending Trump administration nominees, including Daniel Driscoll to be Secretary of the Army. The chamber will also take up a resolution of disapproval that seeks to overturn a Biden-era regulation at the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management relating to “Protection of Marine Archeological Resources.”