Politico this morning featured an article on the chances that former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg could run for, and win, the presidency in 2016. Thorn Run's Jason Rosenstock broke down Bloomberg's appeal, calling him the "middle ground between the populist firebrand that is Sanders and the unpredicatable demagogue that is Trump." Many are skeptical of Bloomberg's potential, but Mr. Rosenstock urged political analysts not to dismiss the billionaire philranthopist: "It may be a bit far-fetched to think someone with Bloomberg's profile could win," said Rosenstock. "But who thought Trump would be this legitimate six months ago? We are in a unique election period and all bets are off."
Bloomberg's Trial Balloon Isn't Rising Yet
Bloomberg himself has indicated a strong desire to run and people who have spoken with him recently say he is inclined to do so. In remarks at his philanthropic foundation last week, Bloomberg called the 2016 campaign "a race to the extremes."
"The list of supposed villains we hear about is long," Mr. Bloomberg said, according to The New York Times, but solutions are "in short supply."
It's the kind of talk bankers love, especially since it implicitly rejects the argument — made by candidates of all partisan stripes these days — that Wall Street itself is a big part of the problem and should face strict new regulations. The pressure got even stiffer on Wall Street last week when Neel Kashkari, a former Goldman Sachs banker and Treasury official under George W. Bush who is now president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, called for action to break up so-called "too big to fail" banks.
Many bankers do not believe Bloomberg — who made his billions selling data terminals to big financial firms — would spend much time on anti-Wall Street rhetoric or support policies that would significantly raise capital standards or otherwise go beyond the reform laws already enacted under President Barack Obama.
"The appeal of Bloomberg is that he would be the middle ground between the populist firebrand that is Sanders and the unpredictable demagogue that is Trump," said Jason Rosenstock, an analyst at Thorn Run Partners. "For people who run businesses on Wall Street or Main Street he seems appealing because he is a pragmatic businessman and his approach is very calming."
Wall Street supporters of both Bush and Hillary Clinton would likely gravitate to Bloomberg in a Sanders vs. Trump or even a Sanders vs. Ted Cruz race, given the former mayor's generally moderate approach on both social and economic issues.
"If it is not Secretary Clinton, which I believe it will be, then the Mayor will definitely resonate with both the center-left and center-right because of his pro-business stance and economic policies," said Robert Wolf, founder of 32 Advisors and a Clinton financial supporter. "But I also think he can do very well with many progressives with his incredibly strong stance on gun reform and climate change."To many political professionals and analysts, the idea of Bloomberg winning is a laughable Wall Street pipe dream. After all, an independent candidate has never won the White House or even come particularly close.
These people say Sanders would win the bluest states while Trump or Cruz would dominate in red states that would reject Bloomberg's policies on gun control, abortion and the environment. A USAToday/Suffolk University poll this week found that in a three-way race,
Trump would receive 37 percent, Sanders 30 percent and Bloomberg 16 percent. In 1992, billionaire Ross Perot received 19 percent and won no electoral votes.
"I wonder if there's been a lane open up wide enough for him," Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam said of Bloomberg at a POLITICO event on Friday.
But bankers pining for Bloomberg say the country has never seen an independent candidate like the former New York mayor who has a net worth of around $40 billion — well-beyond that of Trump — and a strong record as the three-term Republican mayor of the nation's largest city.
"I would certainly put it at a much greater possibility than when Perot ran," said Wolf. "I think the far-left populist and far-right conservative movements each make up about a 20 percent slice, so it leaves a lot of room. He could do very well with popular vote but the electoral map could be more difficult."
Some analysts also note that it was only months ago that the political class dismissed Trump as a novelty candidate who would flame out well before actual voting began. "It may be bit far-fetched to think someone with Bloomberg's profile could win," said Rosenstock. "But who thought Trump would be this legitimate six months ago? We are in a unique election period and all bets are off."