Today, RealClearPolicy published an article authored by Thorn Run's Shea McCarthy that outlines the implications of implications of the various tax reform bills on the nation's healthcare system. With the Senate eyeing a vote on its version of a tax overhaul bill after thanksgiving, McCarthy noted that stakeholders should take the implications of the GOP's once-in-a-generation tax reform effort seriously. "Of particular note in this context is the repeal of the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate, which the Senate has proposed as an offset, providing over $300 billion in savings due to millions fewer individuals receiving subsidized health insurance," wrote McCarthy. "Additionally, a rarely discussed provision in congressional PAYGO rules could require over $135 billion in annual cuts to mandatory spending, targeting health-care programs including Medicare and ACA funding." McCarthy also discussed the political complexities of passing the bipartisan Alexander-Murray ACA stabilization deal, noting that the Senate Majority reached tentative agreement to hold a separate vote on the health-care deal negotiated by Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Patty Murray (R-WA) after the Senate repeals the individual mandate in its tax reform bill.
Author: Thornrun
Financial Services Report
Our Take
It is interesting to view the recent votes on Tax Reform through the historical prism of the last time we had comprehensive tax reform in 1986. While a review of all the roll call votes show some party line votes, it seems like most of the votes were more strong bipartisan totals. While we have shared our thoughts about the wisdom of using a “once in a generation opportunity” to pass temporary changes to the code privately with many of you, it seems telling that this tax effort is a reflection of the ideological “silo-ing” that continues to advance in our country.
Health Policy Report
The Week in Review
Tax reform headlines dominated the week as both chambers took significant steps to advancing tax reform legislation. On Thursday, the Senate Finance Committee advanced the upper chamber’s legislation on a party-line vote after a contentious four-day markup. That move came on the heels of the House approving its version of tax reform legislation on the chamber floor despite 13 Republican defections over the inclusion of a repeal of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. Both versions include important provisions for the healthcare industry, which are broken down in detail below.
This Week on the Hill: Tax Reform Push Continues in Both Chambers; House Votes on NDAA Conference Report, Flood Insurance Deal Tomorrow
The Republican race to finish tax reform legislation before the end of the calendar year enters another critical week as the House takes up its legislation (H.R. 1) on the chamber floor and the Senate Finance Committee begins a markup of the upper chamber’s version of the package. While some defections are likely inevitable, House Republican leadership has voiced confidence that they will have the votes to advance the package before the end of the week and they intend to make few changes to the package passed out of committee last week. The House Rules Committee has teed up a hearing for the bill on Wednesday, likely setting up an up-or-down vote on Thursday.
Health Policy Report
The Week in Review
A big political week both inside and out of Washington saw victories for both parties as Democrats notched electoral wins and Republicans moved a step closer to passing tax reform legislation.
Financial Services Report
Looking Ahead
Near Term
- The Tax bill comes to the full House on Thursday (at Rules on Wednesday)
- Senate Finance starts its mark-up of the tax reform bill on Monday.
- The House Rules Committee is schedule d to meet on Monday to try again at bringing the Flood Insurance bill to the Floor.
- The House Financial Services Committee will mark-up over 20 bills starting on Tuesday.
- DOL Secretary Acosta will be before the House Ed and Workforce Committee on Wednesday.
Today on the Hill: Democrats Claim Victory in Off-Year Elections; House to Consider Hydropower Policy Bill
Democrats are celebrating victories this morning in yesterday’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as other local races across the country. In the most high-profile race, Ralph Northam defeated Ed Gillespie for the Virginia governorship by a nine-point margin, four points more than Hillary Clinton’s victory in the state last year. That fact has some political analysts viewing last night’s results as an early indicator for next year’s midterm elections, particularly as exit polls suggest that voters viewed the Virginia and New Jersey races as a referendum on President Trump. The next election to watch is in Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Roy Moore are vying for the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions when he became Attorney General earlier this year. Election day for that race will be on Dec. 12.
Today on the Hill: Election Day in NJ, VA; Brady Releases Tax Substitute Amendment
Political attention will shift away from Washington and towards Virginia and New Jersey today as those states’ voters head to the polls for a gubernatorial election. The Virginia race in particular is anticipated to be a close contest between current Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Ed Gillespie. Political observers will be viewing the results as a barometer on the electorate following President Trump’s surprising win a year ago, with an eye towards next year’s national midterm elections.
Financial Services Report
Our Take
Say what you want about an ineffective Congress, but starting with the introduction of “The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” through until whenever this crazy train reaches its destination, things are definitely moving full steam ahead. If the schedule holds – and there is every reason to think that it will in the House, but may be delayed slightly in the Senate – the first session of the 115th Congress will come hurtling down the tracks with a flurry of intensity not seen in years. While the end of sessions shenanigans we have grown accustomed to have primarily focused on debt limits and government spending, issues that have broad impact and allow for easy free-riding, tax reform is a whole different kettle of fish. While there is sometime overlap amongst companies or industries, it is not always case. Furthermore, much of these negotiations are zero sum gains, so at the end of the day there is a strong incentive of “every man/woman for themselves.” Selfishly, we would add that even at this early point in the process the tax reform debate has shown the value of having a strong government affairs team in DC.
This Week on the Hill: Tax Reform Hits Legislative Stride, Senate Bill Expected Later This Week
Tax reform is still the talk of the town in Washington as Republicans kick their legislative effort into overdrive this week. The tax reform frenzy kicks off with a highly anticipated markup in the House Ways and Means Committee beginning at noon today. The markup is expected to go into the late evening hours today and consume most of the week. It remains unclear how significantly the bill will change in the markup process, but Republican leaders have already suggested that there will not be an open amendment process when the legislation reaches the House floor.