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Author: Thornrun

Rosenstock: Would a Trump Blowout Loss Cause Lasting Damage to Conservatives?

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In today's Politico "Morning Money," analysts from across Washington gave their takes on the economic speech delivered by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump yesterday. Among other things, Trump called for a freeze on all financial regulation, the renegotiation of major trade deals, and the implementation of a child care deduction in the tax code. Thorn Run's Jason Rosenstock asked a more broad question that was published in the edition, connecting Trump's policy speech with his recent drop in the polls.

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Health Policy Report

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The Week in Review

In the presidential race, Hillary Clinton opened a significant lead in the latest polls following the Democratic National Convention and a series of controversies involving her opponent, Donald Trump. With just under 100 days until the election, Clinton has approached a double digit lead nationally and carries an advantage beyond the margin of error in most of the critical swing states across the country. However, it remains to be seen whether this is a temporary boost in support – a so-called “convention bounce” – or whether recent polls reflect a more lasting trend going forward.

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Rosenberg Describes Importance of Early Relationships for Roll Call

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An article published in Roll Call this morning highlights the advantages of connecting to Congressional candidates early in their political careers, enabling new lawmakers to gain information from Washington insiders while lobbyists are able to develop a rapport with a Member. The article notes that these increasingly common early efforts set up a mutually beneficial relationship that can often last for decades. In the article, Thorn Run's Andy Rosenberg explained that from a lobbyist's point of view, "It’s important for [candidates for office] to get the validation of an existing member or group because you can’t support everybody. You can’t get to know everybody.”

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Health Policy Report

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The Week in Review

Following the Republican convention in Cleveland two weeks ago, Democrats convened in Philadelphia last week to officially nominate Hillary Clinton for President. The biggest scandal of the convention struck before the gavel even dropped as Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D-FL) was forced to resign amid the release of emails suggesting that the Democratic Party staff favored Clinton over her opponent Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and actively sought to undermine his campaign. However, after that rocky start, the convention featured a heavy-hitting lineup of current and past Democratic leaders that vehemently attacked the ideology and credentials of Republican nominee Donald Trump while also casting an optimistic counter view of American society. 

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Health Policy Report

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The Week in Review

With Congress starting its seven-week recess, the Republican Party held its national convention in Cleveland, Ohio to formally nominate Donald Trump for President. While many observers expected the convention to serve as a lightning rod for protests, the fireworks mostly came from the speaker’s podium as Republican stalwarts, celebrities, and numerous members of the Trump family all spoke to a raucous crowd assembled in Cleveland’s basketball arena. The speeches were fairly light on policy and some – most notably Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) – failed to provide a full endorsement of the nominee, but Republicans were united in their opposition to presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. In his acceptance speech, Trump described a nation in turmoil and portrayed himself as the candidate who would return “law and order” to American society. From a health policy perspective, the focus on the personal attributes of the candidates overshadowed differences on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) – or Obamacare – which had been a crucial part of the Republican campaign in the 2010 midterms and 2012 presidential election.

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Financial Services Report

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Looking Ahead

Near Term

  • The Republican National Convention starts today and runs through Thursday.
  • The Democratic National Convention starts one week from today and runs through Thursday, July 28th

Further Out

  • Congress returns from its recess on September 6th.
  • Funding for the Federal Government expires on September 30th.
  • Presidential election will be on November 8th. 

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Health Policy Report

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Week in Review

Congress worked through a packed agenda in their final week before the national party conventions and the traditional summer break. While lawmakers were able to reach important agreements on opioid funding and a reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), they left other important issues – including funding for combatting the Zika virus, responding to recent mass shooting and terror incidents, and appropriations for the Department of Defense (DoD) –unfinished.

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Health Policy Report

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The Week in Review

In a busy week for the House, lawmakers approved a number of bills under suspension of the rules, including a measure altering regulations related to crowdfunding (H.R. 4855) and a long-awaited bill reforming mental health services (H.R. 2646). The mental health bill, which among other provisions would create an Assistant Secretary for Mental Health within the Health and Human Services Department, passed nearly unanimously on a 422-2 vote. In an additional bipartisan victory, House lawmakers approved the conference report (S. 524) to a measure intending to stem the opioid epidemic in another landslide vote, 407-5. Democrats had a late change of heart in supporting the measure, as many originally claimed that funding levels were insufficient. The bill now heads to the Senate, where it is expected to pass easily and be signed into law by President Obama before the summer recess.

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Financial Services Report

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Our Take

The 2015 Congressional calendar was one defined by a series of statutorily imposed deadlines that gave us a modicum of certainty – in as much as that is ever possible with the United States Congress – of when, and in most cases “what” was coming down the pike.   This year, and perhaps in large part due to efforts to return to “regular order” the ability to plan and predict has been less clear.   This has been most apparent in the consideration of the spending bills.  While the House is set to try to pass another one this week, Senate Democrats blocked the usually popular Defense Spending bill last week, and all but made certain that there would be a continuing resolution for funding the government in September.  At issue is whether that measure – known in town as a CR – will keep the government open until a lame duck session or whether it will punt all spending decisions into March and put the questions on the new President’s desk.   Speaking of which, as of this writing, Secretary Clinton is a nearly 80% favorite to win the election in November – but as any gambler know – 5:1 odds aren’t impossible.  Clearly this is a year of unpredictability – and it looks like we should anticipate a very bumpy ride over the next 120 days until the election.   

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This Week on the Hill: With Five Days Left Before Recess, Congress to Tackle FAA, Zika, Interior-Environment, Opioids, and Iran Sanctions

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With just five days separating Congress from a seven-week recess, lawmakers will be working through a packed agenda, including measures addressing environmental regulations, Iran sanctions, aviation security, abortion, and the Zika virus. The most pressing item for both chambers will be clearing legislation to reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) operational authority, which is currently set to expire on Friday. A compromise short-term authorization – which would extend the FAA’s authority through the end of fiscal 2017 – includes increased funding for airport safety operations and is due to reach the House floor today.

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