The first quarter of the lame duck is in the books and it didn’t take long for commentators to begin chipping away at the spirit of bipartisanship that was being forged following the election. Notwithstanding the game of political chicken looming over the Immigration issue and the end of year spending bills –shaping up either to be finalized by December 8th, or perhaps sometime next year –we continue to believe that 2015 will show positive development for legislative activity in Congress, including the potential for regulatory relief from Dodd-Frank as both Chairman Hensarling and Chairman Shelby have both expressed an interest in including that issue on their agenda. Additionally, as long as Leader McConnell allows for more, if not unlimited amendments, it will ensure that all sides have at least a chance to raise their concerns on a variety of issues.
Author: Thornrun
TRP Health Policy Report
After nearly two months on the campaign trail, Congress returned last week for new member orientation, leadership elections and the start of the lame-duck legislative session. The leadership elections offered few surprises, as Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Harry Reid (D-NV), and Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) all received their caucus’s endorsement to lead their respective parties in the 114th Congress. Perhaps the only notable addition came from the Democratic leadership, where Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) was elevated to the newly created position of Strategic Policy Advisor to the Democratic Policy and Communications Center (DPCC). House Democrats will hold leadership elections this week, where Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is seeking re-election unopposed.
TRP’s Jason Rosenstock Spars with Politico’s Morning Money on the Outlook for 2015
Thorn Run's Jason Rosenstock offers an optimistic vision for potential cooperation between Congress and the White House in this morning's edition of Politico Morning Money. The leading finance tip-sheet for beltway-watchers, which frequently features Mr. Rosenstock's insights, borrowed some prognostication (published first in the TRP Financial Services Report) into what Washington may be able to accomplish in the 114th Congress. While Politico's Ben White sounds a note of pessimism towards bipartisanship in 2015, Mr. Rosenstock sees compromise between Congress and the Administration as being in both parties' best interest. "[T]he combination of the 2016 map, as equally unfavorable to the GOP as 2014’s was to the Dems, and the small majority that soon to be Leader McConnell has to work with means that if anything is going to move it will ultimately need to be bipartisan.”
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TRP Financial Services Report
While Republicans rejoiced and Democrats lamented the results of Tuesday’s election, both sides appeared to concur that once again, the electorate was sending a message that they want Washington to work. Not surprisingly, immediately both sides were talking about ways to work together, which almost immediately followed by commentators explaining why this couldn’t happen. (See, Example 1, Example 2, Example 3, Example 4)
While we don’t like to be contrarian, it does appear that this time things could be different. This will be the first time that the Republicans are in complete control of the Congress, at least in name, during the Obama administration. Further, the combination of the 2016 map, as equally unfavorable to the GOP as 2014’s was to the Dems, and the small majority that soon to be Leader McConnell has to work with means that if anything is going to move it will ultimately need to be bipartisan. While some on the right have argued that Republican should dare Obama to veto everything, that strategy would likely backfire because of the need for Democratic votes to override any vetoes, and, as Senator-elect Cory Gardner has noted, there are powerful political reasons for the GOP to show it can govern. The veto strategy doesn’t fit into that box.
TRP Health Policy Report
Riding a surge of voter discontent, Republicans seized control of Congress in last Tuesday’s midterm elections, a result that transforms the political dynamic in Washington and gives the GOP new power over President Obama’s final two years in the White House. Republicans gained at least seven Senate seats to assemble a majority of at least 52 seats, with further pickups possible, once tallying in Alaska is complete and Louisiana holds a run-off next month. The GOP gained at least 12 seats in the House and has won at least 243 seats – a majority that is likely to grow as final races are called. The sweep left Democrats without a majority in either chamber for the first time since 2006. In separate news conferences last Wednesday, President Obama and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) talked of cooperation in the aftermath of the huge GOP election victory, flagging areas of potential compromise, including tax reform, trade deals and other policy matters. President Obama also hosted leaders from both parties at the White House on Friday to discuss how they can accomplish goals in the lame-duck legislative session that begins this week.
Investment News Cites TRP’s Rosenstock on 2015 Political Climate
While some investment advisors are professing that Tuesday's midterm elections will "make Washington work and lead to legislation that helps them," Thorn Run's Jason Rosenstock tells Investment News that the political landscape for the financial sector may not be as favorable as some may suggest. Although Republicans took the majority in the Senate and expanded their margins in the House, dysfunction in Washington will remain a barrier to achieving major reforms. “I'm not sure the White House and the new majorities are going to be able to reach a 'Kumbaya' moment," said Rosenstock.
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TRP Election Update and Analysis
Yesterday’s election provided a Republican wave that out-paced most prognosticators and polling experts. At press time, Alaska (likely Republican) and Virginia (likely Democrat) remain undecided and the Louisiana Senate race (likely Republican) is headed to a runoff on Dec. 6. As of this morning, Republican’s picked up 7 seats, giving them a 52-43 advantage and control of the Senate. Two independents will caucus with Democrats—although Sen. Angus King (I-ME) has been coy about his intentions—likely bringing their numbers up to 45 seats. At this point, the most likely breakdown for the 114th Congress is a 54-46 Republican majority in the Senate. In the House, the GOP has increased their majority by 14 seats with several elections yet to be called. With 17 races yet to be called, the GOP holds an advantage of 243-175 in the lower chamber.
TRP Health Policy Report
The House and Senate are out until November 12, as both chambers have been adjourned for several weeks ahead of tomorrow’s midterm elections. When legislators return to Washington, the House and Senate are expected to be in session for two weeks before breaking for the Thanksgiving holiday. Lawmakers will return in December, when work will continue on appropriations, expired tax provisions and efforts to curb corporate inversions. Other issues that could be considered during the lame-duck session include defense and intelligence operations reauthorizations and terrorism risk insurance (TRIA) reauthorization, as well as bills related to commerce, sanctions and trade. Healthcare-related items could also theoretically be on the agenda, including a permanent fix of Medicare's sustainable growth-rate formula (SGR) and an extension of funding for the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Congress may also take up a bill providing additional funds to combat Ebola in Africa and boosting domestic preparedness against the virus.
TRP Health Policy Report
The House and Senate are adjourned until November 12. Despite the break, last week saw lawmakers hold another hearing on the Obama Administration’s response to the Ebola crisis, a day after a doctor who treated patients in Guinea tested positive for the virus in New York City. Last Friday, the House Government Reform Committee held a hearing featuring testimony from officials from the Defense Department, Homeland Security and HHS that cast the federal government’s response and preparedness under a harsh light. Reports of inconsistent Ebola guidelines around the country have prompted calls for significant improvements to stop the virus's spread in New York, Dallas and elsewhere. At a hearing two weeks ago, CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden faced strong criticism from House Energy and Commerce Committee members, many of whom questioned the credibility of his agency and the Obama Administration in handling the Ebola crisis. In related news, senior Capitol Hill aides say the White House has held preliminary discussions with the Senate about a new funding request to fight Ebola. Last Monday, Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) announced that her full panel would meet to discuss the Ebola crisis on November 6, two days after the midterm elections.
Politico: Thorn Run Tops K St. Growth in 2014
According to a new analysis from Politico, Thorn Run Partners (TRP) is expected to be Washington’s fastest growing lobbying firm in 2014. A review of the data shows that TRP is projected to increase annual revenue by about 32 percent this year, a trend that defies movement seen throughout the industry. As a multidisciplinary firm that offers expertise in government affairs, regulatory policy, and public affairs, Thorn Run has fostered a balanced growth throughout sectors including healthcare, financial services, transportation, education, telecom, and energy.
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