Author: Thorn Run Partners

With one week until the March 1 government funding deadline, multiple reports from Capitol Hill indicate that congressional leadership will announce next steps in the government funding process on Sunday. As of now, expectations are that appropriations leaders will either announce a deal on a pair of “minibus” spending packages that carry all 12 bills in some form or fashion, or another continuing resolution (CR) to provide more time for lingering policy disagreements to be ironed out. While key appropriations cardinals — including House Transportation-HUD Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) — expressed optimism that Congress can reach a funding deal ahead of the deadlines, Freedom Caucus members are continuing to press for conservative policy riders, spending cuts, or a full-year CR that allows a one percent across-the-board spending cut to go into effect. More developments are likely throughout today and over the weekend ahead of lawmakers’ return to Washington next week.

Conservative lawmakers on the House Freedom Caucus are continuing their push for policy priorities and spending cuts as the March government funding deadlines approach. In a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), 28 House Republicans — led by Reps. Bob Good (R-VA) and Chip Roy (R-TX) — asked for an update on roughly two-dozen policy riders that could be included in a possible government funding deal. Absent these priorities, which are largely dead-on-arrival in the Democrat-controlled Senate and White House, the Freedom Caucus lawmakers urged Speaker Johnson to pass a year-long continuing resolution (CR) that would allow the one percent across-the-board spending cut to go into effect under the terms of last year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act. The letter comes as Congress approaches the first government funding deadline next Friday for Agriculture-FDA, Energy-Water, Military Construction-VA, and Transportation-HUD, with everything else funded through March 8.

Lawmakers will return next week to confront the fast-approaching March government funding deadlines, starting with the March 1 date for Agriculture-FDA, Energy-Water Development, Military Construction-VA, and Transportation-HUD. While leadership has cited progress in the talks, another stopgap funding bill will likely be needed to keep the government funded beyond the March 1 and March 8 deadlines. With House Republicans reportedly at odds over the path forward for fiscal year (FY) 2024 government funding, concerns about a possible shutdown are, once again, on the rise. As such, cooperation from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle will be necessary to ensure the government is funded for FY 2024 before April 30, 2024 — after which a one percent across-the-board spending cut could go into effect under the terms of the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

Democrats scored a key victory in yesterday’s special election in New York’s 3rd congressional district to replace former Rep. George Santos (R-NY). Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY), who departed the House in 2022 to pursue a bid for the Empire State’s governor’s mansion, defeated local GOP county legislator Mazi Pilip by eight points in a race that election forecasters widely rated as a tossup. Once Rep. Suozzi is sworn in, the breakdown of the House will be 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats. Republicans are heavily favored to win in a pair of upcoming special elections later this spring to replace former Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Bill Johnson (R-OH).

Early this morning, the Senate passed a $95 billion foreign aid funding bill before gaveling out for the chamber’s two-week Presidents’ Day state work period. The funding bill — which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific, the Senate Banking Committee’s Fentanyl Eradication and Narcotics Deterrence (FEND) Off Fentanyl Act, and $400 million for nonprofit security enhancement grants — cleared the chamber with the support of 70 senators on both sides of the aisle. However, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has signaled that he has no plans to call up the Senate’s supplemental due to the lack of border security provisions — namely the House GOP’s Secure The Border Act (H.R. 2) in its entirety. As such, supporters of the foreign aid package may need to look to a “discharge petition” to circumvent House leadership and force a vote on the floor, but it is too early to tell whether this has enough momentum to succeed.

• Meanwhile… House Republicans are set to try again on their efforts to impeach Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Last week’s vote on the impeachment resolution fell short by one vote in the narrowly-divided chamber, but there is an expectation among leadership that it will succeed now that Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), who was away from Washington receiving medical treatment, is back for votes. Additionally, lawmakers will consider several suspension bills out of the Foreign Affairs Committee. This includes a pair of bills (H.R. 2766; H.R. 4039) that seek to further enhance the U.S. stance against forced labor in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China.

Both chambers will be back in session for the early part of this week, but senators are not expected to stick around too long. As of the current schedule, the Senate is slated to be in session until at least Tuesday to complete consideration of the foreign aid supplemental before leaving for the chamber’s Presidents’ Day state work period. The funding bill — which includes buckets of aid for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific, as well as the Senate Banking Committee’s Fentanyl Eradication and Narcotics Deterrence (FEND) Off Fentanyl Act — is on track to pass with bipartisan support despite opposition from Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rand Paul (R-KY), both of whom blocked unanimous consent (UC) to speed up passage. The opposition from Senate conservatives is also echoed by House Republicans, who have characterized the bill as “dead-on-arrival” multiple times in recent weeks.

• Meanwhile… The House will gavel back in for legislative business on Tuesday. With the return of Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Republicans are set to try again on their efforts to impeach Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Last week’s vote on the impeachment resolution fell short by one vote in the narrowly-divided chamber, but there is an expectation among leadership that it will succeed upon Leader Scalise’s return. While senators on both sides of the aisle have expressed skepticism about the House GOP’s impeachment efforts, the chamber will nevertheless need to devote floor time to the resolution — assuming it can pass this week — thus further complicating Congress’s already-busy schedule this year.

The Senate will meet today to hold a procedural vote on the recently introduced supplemental appropriations package, but this vote is almost certain to fail amid opposition from the GOP conference. As such, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) intends to call up an amended version of the supplemental that only includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific. If enough senators vote in favor of advancing the package, Senate leadership could push to reach a “time agreement” that would queue up expedited passage of the funding bill before senators leave for their scheduled two-week state work period. However, it is too early to tell whether all 100 senators will cooperate on this proposed maneuver, especially given the staunch opposition to Ukraine funding from Freedom Caucus conservatives.

House lawmakers will gavel in for consideration of an Energy and Commerce (E&C) Committee bill that seeks to prohibit the use of certain cost-effectiveness metrics in federal health care programs. Specifically, the Protecting Health Care for All Patients Act would prohibit the use of the quality-adjusted life years (QALY) metric and similar measures in coverage and payment determinations under Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Medicare prescription drug plans, and health programs at the Departments of Defense (DoD) and Veterans’ Affairs (VA).

• Today in Congress…House lawmakers are set to vote on a GOP-sponsored resolution that would impeach Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. The vote is anticipated to fall on party-lines, but Republicans are going to need near-unanimous support to trigger a Senate impeachment trial given their narrow majority in the House. Additionally, the House will consider a standalone supplemental funding bill that would provide aid to Israel absent the offsetting cuts to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that had been initially proposed by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). That bill will be considered under suspension of the rules, but it remains to be seen whether it will earn the requisite two-thirds majority needed for passage as House Democratic leadership is currently whipping against the measure.