Author: Thorn Run Partners

The race to replace Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is beginning to take shape ahead of the highly-anticipated November 2024 leadership elections. Notably, Senate GOP Whip John Thune (R-SD) said yesterday that he “hopes” to be elevated to the position of GOP Leader in the fall, joining former Senate GOP Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) in the race to replace Leader McConnell. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) is also reportedly gearing up for another bid to lead the Senate GOP Conference, and an announcement could come as soon as this week. Meanwhile, Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), the Senate GOP’s third-ranking official and Ranking Member of the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, is set to pass on a bd for GOP leader and instead run for Republican Whip.

— CONGRESS GAVELS BACK IN TODAY. The House and Senate will be back in action today as lawmakers look to quickly pass a six-bill “minibus” spending package ahead of Friday’s first government funding deadline. Consideration of the funding package is currently slated to take place first in the House under suspension of the rules tomorrow, followed by the Senate at some point prior to the deadline. For today, the House will consider 14 bills under suspension of the rules, largely out of the Energy and Commerce (E&C) and Homeland Security Committees. This includes a bill that would reauthorize the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), as well as a measure that would issue new reporting requirements on cybersecurity threats to the 988 Suicide and Crisis lifeline. Meanwhile, the Senate will resume consideration of pending presidential nominations, starting with Ronald Keohane’s nomination to be an Assistant Secretary of Defense.

Yesterday’s meeting between President Biden and the “big four” congressional leaders appears to have yielded a tangible result in the form of another last-minute continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government funded. Under the emerging plan, six funding bills — Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-VA, Energy-Water, Transportation-HUD, Interior-Environment, and Financial Services and General Government (FSGG) — would be punted to next Friday’s deadline to allow more time for the drafting and consideration of a forthcoming “minibus” spending package. The remaining measures — Labor-HHS-Education, Defense, Homeland Security, Commerce-Justice-Science, State-Foreign Operations, and Legislative Branch — would run through March 22. A formal announcement on this agreement is expected “very soon,” according to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

• On the floor… While lawmakers wait for an announcement pertaining to government funding votes, the House will gavel in to consider 10 bills under suspension of the rules. This includes an Energy and Commerce Committee measure that would direct the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to streamline nuclear licensing and reduce fees, while aiming to boost the commission’s workforce and increase U.S. nuclear energy exports. Additionally, lawmakers will take up legislation to spur joint research and development (R&D) activities among the Department of Energy (DOE), National Laboratories, and Small Business Administration (SBA).

Lawmakers will return this week as leadership scrambles to figure out a path forward for keeping the federal government funded. Here’s an overview of where things stand as we approach the upcoming March deadlines.

• What happened? Leadership was originally hoping to unveil text of the first fiscal year (FY) 2024 spending bills over the weekend — possibly alongside another continuing resolution (CR) to provide lawmakers with additional time on the remaining bills. However, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) confirmed that spending talks will slip into this week as House Republicans remain deadlocked over several policy disagreements that have bogged down the appropriations process.

• What’s next? Notably, the “big four” congressional leaders are slated to meet with President Biden on government funding and the foreign aid supplemental on Tuesday. Funding for Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-VA, Energy-Water, and Transportation-HUD is set to expire Friday at midnight without a deal, with everything else funded through March 8. With the House set to return on Wednesday, any funding agreement to keep the government open will likely brush up close to Friday’s deadline.

Situational awareness. Notably, reports out of Capitol Hill suggested that leadership is considering another CR through March 22 to provide additional time to write and pass pending appropriations bills. However, that report came out before appropriators missed their target deadline of Sunday for a government funding announcement. Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is entering a potential “make or break” scenario with respect to his leadership position as lawmakers on the House Freedom Caucus continue to pressure for conservative policy riders and spending cuts for FY 2024. Potential votes on “minibus” spending packages and foreign aid without Freedom Caucus priorities could spur another effort to remove the speaker from his post — a key contributing factor to the current government funding uncertainty.

With one week until the March 1 government funding deadline, multiple reports from Capitol Hill indicate that congressional leadership will announce next steps in the government funding process on Sunday. As of now, expectations are that appropriations leaders will either announce a deal on a pair of “minibus” spending packages that carry all 12 bills in some form or fashion, or another continuing resolution (CR) to provide more time for lingering policy disagreements to be ironed out. While key appropriations cardinals — including House Transportation-HUD Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) — expressed optimism that Congress can reach a funding deal ahead of the deadlines, Freedom Caucus members are continuing to press for conservative policy riders, spending cuts, or a full-year CR that allows a one percent across-the-board spending cut to go into effect. More developments are likely throughout today and over the weekend ahead of lawmakers’ return to Washington next week.

Conservative lawmakers on the House Freedom Caucus are continuing their push for policy priorities and spending cuts as the March government funding deadlines approach. In a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), 28 House Republicans — led by Reps. Bob Good (R-VA) and Chip Roy (R-TX) — asked for an update on roughly two-dozen policy riders that could be included in a possible government funding deal. Absent these priorities, which are largely dead-on-arrival in the Democrat-controlled Senate and White House, the Freedom Caucus lawmakers urged Speaker Johnson to pass a year-long continuing resolution (CR) that would allow the one percent across-the-board spending cut to go into effect under the terms of last year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act. The letter comes as Congress approaches the first government funding deadline next Friday for Agriculture-FDA, Energy-Water, Military Construction-VA, and Transportation-HUD, with everything else funded through March 8.

Lawmakers will return next week to confront the fast-approaching March government funding deadlines, starting with the March 1 date for Agriculture-FDA, Energy-Water Development, Military Construction-VA, and Transportation-HUD. While leadership has cited progress in the talks, another stopgap funding bill will likely be needed to keep the government funded beyond the March 1 and March 8 deadlines. With House Republicans reportedly at odds over the path forward for fiscal year (FY) 2024 government funding, concerns about a possible shutdown are, once again, on the rise. As such, cooperation from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle will be necessary to ensure the government is funded for FY 2024 before April 30, 2024 — after which a one percent across-the-board spending cut could go into effect under the terms of the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

Democrats scored a key victory in yesterday’s special election in New York’s 3rd congressional district to replace former Rep. George Santos (R-NY). Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY), who departed the House in 2022 to pursue a bid for the Empire State’s governor’s mansion, defeated local GOP county legislator Mazi Pilip by eight points in a race that election forecasters widely rated as a tossup. Once Rep. Suozzi is sworn in, the breakdown of the House will be 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats. Republicans are heavily favored to win in a pair of upcoming special elections later this spring to replace former Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Bill Johnson (R-OH).