Author: Thorn Run Partners

Early this morning, the Senate passed a $95 billion foreign aid funding bill before gaveling out for the chamber’s two-week Presidents’ Day state work period. The funding bill — which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific, the Senate Banking Committee’s Fentanyl Eradication and Narcotics Deterrence (FEND) Off Fentanyl Act, and $400 million for nonprofit security enhancement grants — cleared the chamber with the support of 70 senators on both sides of the aisle. However, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has signaled that he has no plans to call up the Senate’s supplemental due to the lack of border security provisions — namely the House GOP’s Secure The Border Act (H.R. 2) in its entirety. As such, supporters of the foreign aid package may need to look to a “discharge petition” to circumvent House leadership and force a vote on the floor, but it is too early to tell whether this has enough momentum to succeed.

• Meanwhile… House Republicans are set to try again on their efforts to impeach Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Last week’s vote on the impeachment resolution fell short by one vote in the narrowly-divided chamber, but there is an expectation among leadership that it will succeed now that Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), who was away from Washington receiving medical treatment, is back for votes. Additionally, lawmakers will consider several suspension bills out of the Foreign Affairs Committee. This includes a pair of bills (H.R. 2766; H.R. 4039) that seek to further enhance the U.S. stance against forced labor in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China.

Both chambers will be back in session for the early part of this week, but senators are not expected to stick around too long. As of the current schedule, the Senate is slated to be in session until at least Tuesday to complete consideration of the foreign aid supplemental before leaving for the chamber’s Presidents’ Day state work period. The funding bill — which includes buckets of aid for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific, as well as the Senate Banking Committee’s Fentanyl Eradication and Narcotics Deterrence (FEND) Off Fentanyl Act — is on track to pass with bipartisan support despite opposition from Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rand Paul (R-KY), both of whom blocked unanimous consent (UC) to speed up passage. The opposition from Senate conservatives is also echoed by House Republicans, who have characterized the bill as “dead-on-arrival” multiple times in recent weeks.

• Meanwhile… The House will gavel back in for legislative business on Tuesday. With the return of Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Republicans are set to try again on their efforts to impeach Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Last week’s vote on the impeachment resolution fell short by one vote in the narrowly-divided chamber, but there is an expectation among leadership that it will succeed upon Leader Scalise’s return. While senators on both sides of the aisle have expressed skepticism about the House GOP’s impeachment efforts, the chamber will nevertheless need to devote floor time to the resolution — assuming it can pass this week — thus further complicating Congress’s already-busy schedule this year.

The Senate will meet today to hold a procedural vote on the recently introduced supplemental appropriations package, but this vote is almost certain to fail amid opposition from the GOP conference. As such, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) intends to call up an amended version of the supplemental that only includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific. If enough senators vote in favor of advancing the package, Senate leadership could push to reach a “time agreement” that would queue up expedited passage of the funding bill before senators leave for their scheduled two-week state work period. However, it is too early to tell whether all 100 senators will cooperate on this proposed maneuver, especially given the staunch opposition to Ukraine funding from Freedom Caucus conservatives.

House lawmakers will gavel in for consideration of an Energy and Commerce (E&C) Committee bill that seeks to prohibit the use of certain cost-effectiveness metrics in federal health care programs. Specifically, the Protecting Health Care for All Patients Act would prohibit the use of the quality-adjusted life years (QALY) metric and similar measures in coverage and payment determinations under Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Medicare prescription drug plans, and health programs at the Departments of Defense (DoD) and Veterans’ Affairs (VA).

• Today in Congress…House lawmakers are set to vote on a GOP-sponsored resolution that would impeach Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. The vote is anticipated to fall on party-lines, but Republicans are going to need near-unanimous support to trigger a Senate impeachment trial given their narrow majority in the House. Additionally, the House will consider a standalone supplemental funding bill that would provide aid to Israel absent the offsetting cuts to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that had been initially proposed by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). That bill will be considered under suspension of the rules, but it remains to be seen whether it will earn the requisite two-thirds majority needed for passage as House Democratic leadership is currently whipping against the measure.

Bill text for the long-anticipated supplemental funding bill for foreign aid and border security was released over the weekend ahead of floor action in the Senate this week. In addition to funds for Ukraine, Israel, and the U.S.-Mexico Border, the roughly $119 billion package includes a series of border security and immigration policy reforms, the Senate Banking Committee’s Fentanyl Eradication and Narcotics Deterrence (FEND) Off Fentanyl Act, as well as $400 million for the Nonprofit Security Grant Program. While the measure does have support from Senate Leaders Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY), it remains to be seen whether it can earn the 60 votes needed to pass the Senate.

• Next Steps & Context. As of the current schedule, Leader Schumer is expected to tee up the first procedural vote on the package for Wednesday. However, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and former President Donald Trump — the frontrunner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination — voicing strong opposition to the bipartisan deal, it remains to be seen whether there is an appetite within the Senate Republican conference to try and move a measure that is essentially “dead-on-arrival” in the House. Notably, Speaker Johnson unveiled a new supplemental funding measure to provide aid to Israel in a move designed to further jam the bipartisan Senate agreement.

— THIS WEEK IN CONGRESS. Both chambers will gavel back into session today. While the Senate focuses on clearing pending nominations before moving onto consideration of the supplemental, House lawmakers are slated to take up a bill out of the Energy and Commerce Committee that seeks to ban the use of the quality-adjusted-life-years (QALY) metric in coverage and payment determinations under federal health care programs. Additionally, a vote is expected on a GOP-sponsored resolution that would impeach Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. For today, lawmakers will consider several bills out of the Natural Resources Committee under suspension of the rules, including one that would reauthorize the Reclamation States Emergency Drought Relief Act through 2028 (H.R. 4385).

House and Senate Appropriations Committee leaders made important progress toward a March 2024 government funding deal late last week, but much work remains ahead. Notably, Chairs Kay Granger (R-TX) and Patty Murray (D-WA) struck an agreement on funding allocations — otherwise known as 302(b)s — for all 12 spending bills in fiscal year (FY) 2024. The allocations, which have yet to be posted publicly as of this writing, will allow appropriators to write, finalize, and pass funding bills during the February work period. Depending on the overall level of bipartisan cooperation during this process, a March 2024 funding deal could be used to carry other pending legislative efforts around health care, tax, and more. The funding deadline for Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-VA, Energy-Water, and Transportation-HUD will run through March 1, with everything else — including Labor-HHS-Education — funded through March 8.

• Meanwhile… A bipartisan group of senators, including Sens. Chris Murphy (D-CT), James Lankford (R-OK), and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), are hoping to produce legislative text for a supplemental appropriations package that includes foreign aid and border security, but it remains to be seen whether this forthcoming agreement can earn the 60 votes needed for passage. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has also characterized the contours of the deal as “dead-on-arrival” in the Republican-controlled House.

Senate Republicans met yesterday to discuss a path forward on supplemental funding for foreign aid and border security as negotiations on a bipartisan deal continue behind the scenes. According to reports out of Capitol Hill, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) cast doubt on whether an agreement would come to fruition, especially given the opposition from both House Republicans and former President Donald Trump — the frontrunner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. As Senate Republicans continue their internal deliberations on how to proceed, the lead negotiators for the package — Sens. Chris Murphy (D-CT), James Lankford (R-OK), and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) — are continuing their efforts to finalize bill text for consideration as soon as next week. Lingering disagreements over asylum and parole policies, as well as figuring out how much money to allocate toward broader border policy changes, are among some of the last remaining holdups.