Author: Thorn Run Partners

Congress is officially in “punt formation” on government funding as both chambers are set to pass the three-month continuing resolution (CR) during today’s session. The House will hold a final up or down vote on the CR under suspension of the rules around 5:30 PM EST this evening, and the underlying measure is expected to pass with strong bipartisan support. Thanks to a “time agreement” announced by Senate leadership during yesterday’s session, the Senate will immediately begin consideration of the CR once it’s received from the House, with final passage occurring later this evening. Today’s votes are slated to be the last ones until Tuesday, November 12.

• Situational awareness. With limited floor time available and Congress well behind on key year-end items like government funding and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the “lame duck” session of the 118th Congress is set to be a sprint to the finish. Lawmakers, especially those who will not be returning to their posts next year, will be eager to wrap up bipartisan legislative deals into a potential year-end spending package to “clear the decks” before the 119th Congress gavels in. However, much remains in flux pending the outcome of the 2024 election.

Amid mounting disagreements on both sides of the aisle, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) postponed consideration of the six-month continuing resolution (CR) during yesterday’s session. House Republican leadership will now turn its attention to whipping support for the CR — which would fund the government to March 2025 and include language to restrict undocumented immigrants from voting — as there are reportedly more than a dozen GOP lawmakers opposed. Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) are pushing for bipartisan cooperation toward a stopgap funding deal negotiated by the “four corners” leaders of the House and Senate spending panels. However, Speaker Johnson and House GOP leaders have yet to embrace this approach as of now.

House Republican leadership is whipping support for a continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government funded into March of next year ahead of this afternoon’s vote series, but it looks as if these efforts are going to fall short. Several House Republicans have come out against Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) proposed stopgap strategy, which includes language to restrict undocumented immigrants from voting. As of now, Speaker Johnson has stressed that he is “not looking at any other alternative or any other suggestion” with respect to the stopgap, and the final vote is currently anticipated to take place around 4:30 PM EST this afternoon. These comments come as former President Donald Trump, the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, has ramped up his rhetoric in support of a shutdown absent passage of the House CR.

House Republican leadership’s current plan to keep the government funded past Sept. 30 is facing resistance on both sides of the aisle. Congressional Democrats and the White House had already expressed strong opposition to the proposed continuing resolution (CR) that would keep the government funded until March 2025, but several House Republicans have come out against the CR as well. As of now, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has insisted that this stopgap is the only plan on the table as he plans to press forward with the first procedural vote today to advance the rule. Assuming the rule passes, consideration and votes on the stopgap will occur during tomorrow’s session. Meanwhile, the Senate will be in session today for additional votes on pending judicial nominations.

During last week’s Democratic National Convention (DNC), House and Senate Democratic leaders provided some insights into their legislative priorities for the upcoming three-week session. Of note, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told reporters he is “considering” utilizing the September work period to try and move a bipartisan rail safety bill that has been stalled by political disagreements in recent weeks. This potential move is widely viewed as an opportunity to boost Sens. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH), both of whom have cosponsored the legislation alongside Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), the Republican Vice Presidential nominee. However, similar to the Senate’s vote on the Smith-Wyden tax bill last month, the rail safety legislation could struggle to get to 60 votes given the timing and political nature of the vote.

• Meanwhile… House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told reporters that he will “soon” talk with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) on government funding ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline. In response to recent demands from the conservative House Freedom Caucus, Leader Jeffries stated that Democrats “are not accepting a dime less than the $1.681 [trillion spending level], which is reflected in an agreement that we reached with the Republicans.” Additionally, Leader Schumer is rallying support for full federal funding to replace Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge as a policy rider to the forthcoming continuing resolution (CR). When Congress returns on Sept. 9, lawmakers will have 21 days to reach an agreement to keep the government funded. It is widely expected that another CR will be passed to avoid a shutdown and provide spending authority into late November or early December, but details remain in flux at this point.

Lawmakers on the conservative House Freedom Caucus have laid down a series of policy demands for the upcoming government funding debate in the fall legislative session. In a statement yesterday, the Freedom Caucus called on Congress to pass a continuing resolution (CR) into “early 2025” to avoid a year-end spending package. While House and Senate appropriators are behind the ball on government funding for fiscal year (FY) 2025, it is highly unlikely that leadership will acquiesce to this latest position from the Freedom Caucus when the Sept. 30 deadline approaches. Instead, expect leaders to throw their weight behind a stopgap to keep the government funded past the November election.

— SENATE SENDS KIDS’ ONLINE SAFETY PACKAGE TO THE HOUSE. The Senate overwhelmingly passed a package of kids’ online safety and privacy bills during yesterday’s session. The Kids Online Safety and Privacy Act — which includes the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) and the Children and Teens Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA 2.0) — now heads to the House for consideration in the fall work period. Timing on the House vote is unclear as of now, as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) noted that he will work to find consensus among lawmakers before moving forward.

Programming note. The Senate is in session today for final up-or-down votes on a series of judicial nominations. During yesterday’s session, senators unanimously passed a pair of bills to reauthorize the National Alzheimer’s Project (S. 133) and require an annual report of the project’s budgetary needs (S. 134). Additional measures that have the support of all 100 senators could likewise clear by unanimous consent prior to the end of the week as the Senate looks to clear the decks on pending legislative efforts before the end of the year.

Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has scheduled a procedural vote on a bipartisan package of family and business tax provisions before the Senate gavels out for August. The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act, otherwise known as the Smith-Wyden tax bill, passed the House with strong bipartisan support earlier this year but is not expected to meet the 60-vote threshold needed to advance given the ongoing disagreements. In particular, several Senate Republicans have raised concerns about the Child Tax Credit (CTC) provisions, while some Democratic senators have argued that the family tax portion of the bill does not go far enough. As such, the move by Leader Schumer is largely viewed as a messaging exercise to give both parties some talking points on tax in the final weeks of the summer campaign.