Author: Thorn Run Partners

The House formally adopted [216-214] the updated GOP budget resolution to officially unlock the reconciliation process for President Trump’s legislative agenda on tax, border, energy, and more. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) originally intended to hold a vote on the updated resolution during yesterday’s session, but more than a dozen GOP lawmakers expressed concerns about the lack of clarity around spending cuts within the reconciliation effort — the Senate’s instructions hover around $4 billion, much less than the $1.5 trillion in reductions eyed in the original House resolution. Nevertheless, Republicans on the House Freedom Caucus were assuaged by comments from Speaker Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) about their willingness to pursue spending cuts deemed adequate by the Conference and the Trump administration. These holdouts, including Reps. Ralph Norman (R-SC), Andy Harris (R-MD), Eric Burlison (R-MO), and more, ultimately supported the resolution during this morning’s vote.

• What’s next? Pursuant to the budget resolution, committees of instruction have until Friday, May 9 to produce their respective reconciliation bills. It is expected that Republicans will try to move as quickly as possible through the upcoming May work period with the goal of passing the reconciliation bill before Memorial Day. However, intraparty discussions over the size and scope of spending cuts —  particularly as it pertains to public benefit programs like Medicaid and SNAP — as well as permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), will need to be carefully navigated in order to maintain this timeline.
• On the Senate side… The chamber is set to pass a resolution of disapproval to overturn a Biden-era regulation relating to “Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Gas-fired Instantaneous Water Heaters.” A final confirmation vote on Mark Meador’s nomination to be a Federal Trade Commissioner is also slated for today.

The House will gavel in today for a pivotal vote on the House GOP budget resolution as leadership looks to move closer toward crafting and enacting a sweeping reconciliation package on tax, energy, border security, and more. House Republican leadership has been working overtime to shore up support for the budget resolution among lawmakers that have expressed concern about steep cuts to public benefits, emphasizing that the resolution is a “procedural step” and that cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and Pell are not explicitly outlined within the resolution. While these whipping efforts have assuaged concerns among some of these lawmakers, including Reps. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) and Don Bacon (R-NE), reports from Capitol Hill indicate that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is still facing some defections from the likes of Reps. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) and Warren Davidson (R-OH). Of note, Rep. Davidson stated his intention to vote no on the resolution until leadership “communicate[s] a binding plan for discretionary spending ahead of March 14.”

• Situational awareness. Assuming that the House can get its resolution adopted this week, negotiations between Speaker Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) are expected to intensify with the goal of getting one uniform budget resolution through both chambers. If the House’s resolution stalls out, Senate Republicans will likely use this as an opportunity to try and boost their own budget resolution, which passed the upper chamber with relative ease last week. To that end, it will be worth monitoring to see if President Trump changes his mind and throws his weight behind the Senate’s two-bill approach — which splits off tax reform with border and energy-specific priorities — to try and achieve a quick legislative win in the early part of this year.

— THE LATEST ON GOVERNMENT FUNDING. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) cautioned yesterday that appropriators are not where they need to be with respect to an agreement on fiscal year (FY) 2025 government funding, and will need a stopgap to allow for additional time absent significant and quick progress. Congress is pushing up against the quickly-approaching March 14 government funding deadline, but the “four corners” appropriators have remained gridlocked over topline spending numbers —a critical precursor to the development of all 12 appropriations bills. As of now, it is not clear how long another continuing resolution (CR) would run through, but some have floated the possibility of a stopgap through the rest of this fiscal year. However, such a move would likely trigger the one percent across-the-board spending cut mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) if all 12 appropriations bills are not passed by April 30, 2025. A shorter CR could give lawmakers time to pass a series of three or four-bill “minibus” packages to ensure that key sections of the federal government stay open, but it is not yet clear if there is bipartisan support to move forward at this time.

• On the floor. In addition to the House budget resolution, the House will hold a final vote on legislation that would establish a research and development (R&D) agreement between the Small Business Administration (SBA) and Department of Energy (DOE) to ensure small businesses are included within activities covered within the agreement. Meanwhile, the Senate will resume consideration of pending Trump administration nominees, including Daniel Driscoll to be Secretary of the Army. The chamber will also take up a resolution of disapproval that seeks to overturn a Biden-era regulation at the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management relating to “Protection of Marine Archeological Resources.”

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will bring the House GOP’s budget resolution to the floor next week after President Donald Trump endorsed the one-bill approach yesterday. While the House’s resolution passed in committee with the full support of Republicans on the panel, leadership will still need to work overtime to ensure full support on the floor given the razor-thin margin. Notably, eight GOP lawmakers — including Reps. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), David Valadao (R-CA), Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), Rob Bresnahan (R-PA), and Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY), along with non-voting Delegates James Moylan (R-GU) and Kimberly King-Hinds (R-MP) — wrote to Speaker Johnson cautioning against deep cuts to Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and Pell Grants.

• What they’re saying. “As we consider reconciliation cuts, we must be strategic. We need to uphold fiscal responsibility while ensuring that essential programs — programs that have empowered Americans to succeed — are not caught in the crossfire.”

 

• Meanwhile.. Senate Republicans are set tomove toward adopting their budget resolution upon conclusion of the so-called vote-a-rama — a process that allows for unlimited, rapid-fire consideration of amendments upon the conclusion of 50 hours of debate equally divided among both parties. Despite being spurned by President Trump’s endorsement of the House’s resolution, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) stressed the importance of providing the president with multiple options in case some of the lingering disagreements over the House’s one-bill approach persist. In particular, multiple House and Senate Republicans have expressed concerns about tying the size of the tax package to the amount of spending cuts ultimately achieved. To the extent things drag out with consideration of the House resolution, GOP lawmakers could pivot to the Senate’s approach if President Trump changes his mind, but this remains to be seen.

 

• Programming note. The Senate’s “vote-a-rama” is expected to begin at some point later in the day. Democrats are poised to offer dozens of amendments aimed at messaging against the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and consideration of amendments will continue until Senate Democrats yield — possibly late tomorrow morning or early afternoon. Additionally, the Senate will hold a final up-or-down vote on the nomination of Kash Patel to be Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

The Senate GOP’s budget resolution is on a glidepath toward adoption in the upper chamber, but President Donald Trump is not fully onboard with the two-bill approach. In a major win for House Republican leadership, the president took to his social media platform earlier today and called on the GOP to “kickstart” the reconciliation process using the House’s resolution to pass “one big beautiful bill.”

• What’s next? As of now, Senate Republicans are expected to move toward adopting their budget resolution upon conclusion of the so-called vote-a-rama — a process that allows for unlimited, rapid-fire consideration of amendments upon the conclusion of 50 hours of debate equally divided among both parties. However, it will be worth monitoring to see if Senate GOP leadership decides to hit the brakes on its process given President Trump’s endorsement of the House approach. It is also highly likely that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will bring the House GOP’s budget resolution to the floor next week with hopes that the president’s endorsement will shore up support among the conference. However, nothing official has been announced or posted as of this writing.

• Situational awareness. While the House’s resolution passed in committee with the full support of Republicans on the panel, leadership will still need to work overtime to ensure full support on the floor given the razor-thin margin. Some House and Senate Republicans — including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) — have taken issue with a provision adopted within the budget resolution that seeks to tie the overall size of the tax package to the amount of spending cuts ultimately achieved. Of note, several Senate Republicans, led by Leader Thune and Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), wrote to the president saying that they would not support a tax package that does not permanently extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Other House Republicans — including Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY), and Rob Bresnahan (R-PA) — have pushed back against deep cuts to public benefit programs like Medicaid.

— SENATE SET TO CONFIRM TRUMP SBA ADMINISTRATOR. Senators will gavel in today for a final up-or-down vote on the nomination of former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) to be Small Business Administrator. Kash Patel’s nomination to be Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is expected to come up during Thursday’s session, but timing could slip depending on when the Senate begins the “vote-a-rama.”

House leadership officially filed a three-month continuing resolution (CR) that would, among other things, keep the government funded until March 14, 2025. In addition to addressing several expiring programs, the 1,500+ page legislation also includes:

• Roughly $100 billion in disaster relief aid, including $29 billion for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Disaster Relief Fund;
• A sweeping health care extender package that includes key Medicare, Medicaid, and public health initiatives;
• A series of China-related bills, including legislation to restrict U.S. outbound investment in sensitive technologies;
• A five-year reauthorization of the Older Americans Act (OAA);
• A six-year reauthorization of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA);
• Economic assistance for farmers alongside a one-year extension of the Farm Bill;
• An extension of the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) counter-drone authority through the length of the CR, and more.

Context & Next Steps. The House is currently on track to vote on the CR tomorrow at a time to be determined. It is likely that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will need the support from Democrats on the floor to get it across the finish line, as several Republican lawmakers have expressed opposition around the size and scope of this year-end package. However, it is unclear whether Speaker Johnson has the numbers on the GOP side to meet the two-thirds majority needed for expedited passage in the House. As such, House Republican leadership may need to bring it up under “regular order” and potentially rely on Democratic votes in the House Rules Committee to circumvent opposition from Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX), Thomas Massie (R-KY), and Ralph Norman (R-SC) — each of whom have indicated they may vote no.