Author: Thorn Run Partners

Congress is expected to receive additional clarity from the Treasury Department as to when the federal government could run out of borrowing power — a key factor that could accelerate consideration of the GOP reconciliation bill. Specifically, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reportedly slated to provide Congress with an update as to when the “X date” will fall. According to a projection from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) earlier this month, the federal government could run out of “extraordinary measures” to prevent a default by August or September, but this could get pushed earlier into the late spring or summer if tax revenue comes in below expectations. To the extent that Treasury’s estimate aligns closer to June or July, that will be a catalyst for congressional Republicans to mobilize on reconciliation to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible. On the other hand, an August or September X date could also provide some GOP lawmakers with a justification to hold off while lingering debates over the total cost of the package, cuts to public benefit programs like Medicaid and SNAP, as well as key tax policy decisions are resolved.

Congress wrapped up legislative business last week after Republicans successfully unlocked the reconciliation process to pass “one big, beautiful bill” containing President Donald Trump’s legislative priorities on tax, border, energy, and more. Pursuant to the budget resolution, committees of instruction have until Friday, May 9 to produce their respective reconciliation bills, and Republicans are trying to move as quickly as possible through the upcoming May work period with the goal of passing the reconciliation bill before Memorial Day.

• When lawmakers return to Washington at the end of the month, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said that committees will begin holding markups on their respective instructions that will be combined into a single reconciliation bill. According to news reports from over the weekend, the first markups in the House Judiciary, Homeland Security, and Armed Services Committees are being eyed for the week of April 28. Meanwhile, timing for markups in the Energy and Commerce (E&C) and Ways and Means Committees are not clear as of now given some of the ongoing discussions on tax policy and spending cuts. However, action on reconciliation could speed up significantly depending on when the Treasury Department’s “X date” — the date in which the federal government is projected to hit its borrowing limit — falls. While the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently suggested that the X date could be in August or September, late May or June remains possible if tax revenue falls below expectations, according to CBO’s forecast.
• What to watch. Congress has until December 31, 2025 to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), and Republicans are aiming to do so well ahead of the sunset deadline. We’ll be looking to see where the chips fall on key debates around TCJA permanence, the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean energy tax credits, as well as numerous campaign promises from the President like no tax on Social Security benefits and tipped wages. Republicans also need to hash out key disagreements over the size and scope of cuts to public benefit programs like Medicaid and SNAP to ensure that the reconciliation package can pass with the requisite number of GOP votes in both chambers.

A pair of competing government funding strategies are emerging as Congress brushes up against next Friday’s deadline. Specifically, the “four corners” leaders of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees are reportedly on the cusp of an agreement on topline spending figures for fiscal year (FY) 2025, a critical precursor to the development appropriations bills that could theoretically ride in a series of “minibus” spending packages. However, this approach has thus far been rebuffed by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who stated yesterday that he plans to move forward with a “clean” continuing resolution (CR) for the remainder of this fiscal year, per President Trump’s request. Text for the House GOP CR is expected over the weekend, according to House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-OK).

• What’s next? Under the current timeline, Speaker Johnson is pushing to bring up the clean CR for a vote under “regular order” early next week, with the final vote likely to occur on Tuesday. Democratic support for this CR is expected to be limited, especially if a bipartisan agreement on topline funding numbers is announced prior to the vote. If the House manages to pass the clean CR, indications are that there could be enough Democrats willing to cross over to join Republicans in support to provide the measure with the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster in the Senate.
• On the floor. The Senate will meet today to resume consideration of pending presidential nominees, including Lori Chavez-DeRemer to be Secretary of Labor. A procedural vote on former Rep. Chavez-DeRemer’s nomination is expected during today’s session, and she is expected to advance with cross-party support. Some Republicans, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), could opt to vote no given her previous co-sponsorship of the PRO Act in the 118th Congress. Additionally, the Senate will hold a final up-or-down vote on Troy Edgar’s nomination to be Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security. Finally, senators will take a procedural vote on legislation to classify fentanyl into Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act. Meanwhile, the House met this morning to clear a Senate-passed Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolution overturning a Biden era regulation relating to ‘‘Protection of Marine Archaeological Resources.’’ Lawmakers also voted to censure Rep. Al Green (D-TX) for his conduct during President Trump’s Joint Address to Congress.

It was business as usual from President Donald Trump during last night’s record-length joint address to Congress as he sought to rally the “GOP trifecta” on his accomplishments over the course of his first couple of months back in office, as well as his legislative agenda. The president reiterated familiar promises and demands from the campaign trail, and defended the activities of the so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” or DOGE. Of note, he called on Congress to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanently in addition to no tax on tips, overtime pay, Social Security benefits, and car loans for autos made in the U.S. However, President Trump did not delve into specifics on some of the “must have” tax policies like removing the cap on the state and local tax deduction, nor did he weigh in on potential cuts to public benefit programs such as Medicaid.

• Situational awareness. While Joint Addresses like these can be void of specific policy details, the President’s budget for fiscal year (FY) 2026 will provide a more comprehensive overview of what the White House hopes to accomplish through the government funding process. However, the Trump administration is already well behind the statutorily required deadline, and rumors suggest that the president’s FY 2026 request might not be released until the middle of May.
• Sad note. Sylvester Turner (D-TX), elected to replace the late Rep. Shelia Jackson Lee (D-TX) in Texas’s 18th congressional district, passed away late last night.
• On the floor. The Senate will meet today for a vote on a Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolution to overturn a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) rule relating to “Defining Larger Participants of a Market for General-Use Digital Consumer Payment Applications.” Additionally, senators will resume consideration of pending presidential nominees, starting with Todd Blanche to be Deputy Attorney General today. Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) also filed a procedural vote on Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s nomination to lead the Department of Labor. Meanwhile, the House will consider a pair of CRA resolutions pertaining to energy efficiency standards for appliances, as well as pollutant rules for rubber tires.

House lawmakers will gavel in for legislative business today as Republican leadership looks to adopt its budget resolution by tomorrow evening. While the House’s plan to pass “one big beautiful” reconciliation package has momentum over the Senate’s thanks to the president’s endorsement, GOP leadership still has work to do to so that its budget resolution is adopted with the support of the entire GOP conference. Notably, one Republican lawmaker, Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), has publicly stated that she intends to vote no at this time. Other Republicans in the House have publicly expressed concern about proposed cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and Pell. Additionally, some Ways and Means Committee tax writers, including Chair Jason Smith (R-MO), have pushed back on a provision that ties the overall size of the tax package to the amount of spending cuts ultimately achieved. There is also some consternation among conservatives over raising the federal debt limit through the reconciliation process.

• Situational awareness. Assuming that the House can get its resolution adopted this week, negotiations between House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) are expected to intensify with the goal of getting one uniform budget resolution through both chambers. The tax portion of the House’s plan is expected to be the biggest pressure point in these talks as Senate Republican leaders have stated they will not support a tax package that does not permanently extend provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). However, Congress is also pushing up against the quickly-approaching March 14 government funding deadline — and appropriators have reported that they remain gridlocked over the topline spending figure for fiscal year (FY) 2025. As such, bandwidth both on and off the floor is expected to be tight as leadership looks to shepherd through these “must pass” priorities.

• In addition to the House budget resolution, GOP leadership has teed up consideration of a pair of Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolutions that seek to overturn Biden-era regulations, specifically on energy standards for gas-powered water heaters (H.J.Res. 20) and emissions charges for petroleum and natural gas systems (H.J.Res. 35). For today, the chamber will consider a slate of suspension bills out of the House Small Business Committee. This includes legislation that would establish a research and development (R&D) agreement between the Small Business Administration (SBA) and Department of Energy (DOE) to ensure small businesses are included within activities covered within the agreement. Meanwhile, the Senate will resume consideration of pending Trump administration nominees, including Daniel Driscoll to be Secretary of the Army and Jamieson Greer to be United States Trade Representative (USTR).